Categories
Infrastructure

Education Infrastructure

Recently I was up in Papua New Guinea for work. The PNG government has an ambitious policy of free primary school education. This requires more education infrastructure right across the country.  I had an opportunity to look at how education infrastructure is being improved through an Australian government project with PNG. The following photos show how classroom conditions have changed through some simple design measures.  Use of the old classrooms only stopped a couple of months ago.

 

The new school buildings were erected to Australian construction standards. The design featured higher ceilings to improve air flow, fans, and electrical lighting. Blocks of four classrooms and teachers prep rooms were constructed using Besser block. This made better use of the site.  Also, ablution blocks at some schools were upgraded, which has a significant positive impact on female participation in education.

These clean, functional classrooms provide a much better learning environment for students. This is infrastructure that should last a long time in a very challenging environment.

Categories
Economics Infrastructure Policy

Infrastructure Complexity

complex-infrastructure.png

Why does delivering infrastructure have to be so complex on so many different levels? It seems hard to correctly identify infrastructure, assess the need for services from those assets, discern which infrastructure to maintain, rehabilitate, replace or build new. Further, there are strong disagreements at the political level, between infrastructure agencies and, within infrastructure agencies, between different asset managers.

Complexity arises from the involvement of a broad array of participants in the provision of infrastructure assets, as well as the managers of the services provided from those assets.

It also arises from complex streams of benefits. In addition to benefits accruing to consumers of infrastructure services, there are often significant streams of benefits that are positive externalities. Wider benefits to society from improved health services, better access to education, cleaner water supplies, stable supply of electricity, and improvements to travel time and quality of the trip. A healthier workforce improves productivity. A more educated populace can generate higher disposable incomes. Purer water supplies enhance public health. Stable electricity supplies reduce business interruptions. Improved transport systems make labour markets function better and increase intra and inter city productivity. The benefits are multifaceted and often hard to quantify on cost-benefit analyses.

On the supply side, it is often too easy to overlook the range of solutions that are on offer. After a need has been identified, solutions could well include non-built options. This may involve active demand management, improving utilization and output of existing assets, repairing and rehabilitating existing infrastructure, changing the infrastructure asset operating environment to foster demand for alternatives.

The options analysis needs to be undertaken at the output/outcome level, rather than at the input/resource level. That is where actual economic value can be identified. To do otherwise creates the risk of estimating the cost of sub-optimal options.

Complexity also arises in terms of finding the financial resources to commission and operate infrastructure assets. Also, implementation through procurement and construction may have complexity.

Large, nationally significant infrastructure contains a lot of first pass risks. Getting the right scale and scope of infrastructure to match the most likely demand profile requires a lot of analysis.

Many infrastructure assets contain hiding optionality benefits. The ability to set the ultimate scale and scope, as well as the possible staging to achieve that is a significant real asset option. At the outset, a lot of choices can be made that close off options later on. Least cost solutions are not necessarily the best solutions where service quality between options can vary.

So what gets bought and how it gets built becomes critical.

Ultimately financial resources are committed. This is because small annual benefits are often realized over long periods. This is in contrast to large initial construction costs. Construction costs and some measure of operating expenses have to be funded. User charges do not always cover these costs. Finance addresses the imbalance of cash flows inherent in infrastructure. Ultimately, infrastructure must be paid for either by users or taxpayers. There is a significant range of public and private financing mechanisms. Financing choices are complex and can carry different risk profiles. This can affect asset valuation, as well as commercial risks around viability.

These are all significant touch points highlighting infrastructure complexity. They warrant detailed consideration and investigation in each infrastructure project.

Categories
Infrastructure Policy

Investing in Infrastructure

intersection

It is easy to think of investing in infrastructure as something that needs to be done on a routine basis – repairing power stations that supply our electricity or maintaining rail lines that carry our commuters and freight. This real foundation of our economy and society should be prudently addressed in a routine and methodical way, free from political and ideological agendas. Close to the operational level, asset management strategies address this.

At the same time, investing in infrastructure is anything but routine. It is a platform in which we determine the future competitiveness of our country, much the same as any other state. It also determines the extent to which we can maintain and enhance an open and inclusive society, one that also shapes long-term responses to climate change.

Infrastructure investment is a long-term investment to secure that future capacity and productivity in our economy. It provides a demand for highly skilled jobs in the professional service sectors, driving future employment growth.

While it can provide short-term stimulus through the installation and commissioning of capital assets, the long-term benefits are far more significant. The Depression-era stimulus from constructing the Sydney Harbour Bridge has been far outweighed by the benefits from the annual flood of traffic traversing the bridge over decades. Emphasis on the short-term stimulus from consuming resources to construct infrastructure misses the point.  These projects are justified only on the basis of the long-term streams of benefits they can generate.

Infrastructure investment needs to expand a nation’s economic frontier – it lifts potential constraints on future economic growth. In the past Australia has benefited from the development of its road and rail networks, the creation of terminals (airports and seaports) and the development of a copper-based telecommunications system. Our future points to benefits accruing from fast fibre optic broadband, carbon reducing power investments and new high-speed rail technologies.

Australia has been facing a challenge to the core model for funding public infrastructure for a long time. The use of the taxation system to generate funds for public investment will not be sufficient to meet all of the infrastructure investments we require. We cannot do it out of our government budgets. It was not enough in the past either, and we imported foreign capital in the form of sovereign loans.

The Australian economy was simply not large enough in the past to fund the infrastructure investments that underpinned the economic growth we have achieved and the living standards we enjoy.

The nature of our infrastructure investments and what constitutes economic infrastructure have changed over time. Historically we have looked to the physical capital side of the economic growth equation, with less emphasis on the human capital side.

We need a new bipartisan consensus that effectively decouples infrastructure from political and budget cycles, to drive investment in the public interest. Emerging governance arrangements at the federal and state levels are showing promise but remain captured by legislative, budget and bureaucratic cycles.  They are still in their early stages of maturity in the Australian federal system of government.

A new commitment to investment is required that explicitly learns the lessons from past failures, avoids the ghosts of white elephants (the lonely tunnels, quiet dams, and bridges to nowhere) and addresses the pressing demands for the infrastructure services that support a modern 21st-century economy.  We need to be honest about past mistakes, in order to avoid them in the future.

We need investment in infrastructure that does the following:

  • repairs and rehabilitates our stock of existing infrastructure assets to continue producing existing streams of services that our citizens demand
  • expands the capacity of our economy by growing our infrastructure asset base with newer, smarter investments that are more productive in supplying services, lowering input costs
  • improves the productivity or our economy by investing in new types of infrastructure technology, enabling new kinds of infrastructure services enabling improvements to other sectors of the economy
  • enhances human capital with savvy health and education infrastructure investments that make our people smarter and healthier, improve the productivity of our economy and improve the quality of life for all.

These investments will position Australia to be at the front end of continuing global technological revolutions, set us on a lower carbon trajectory and expand the frontier of economic possibilities for the economy.

Rather than run down our current assets we must renew, reinvigorate and expand them as prudent custodians for future generations. These investments will be the backbone on which our future prosperity will stand.

Categories
Economics Infrastructure Transport

Value Uplift and Capture

money_bridgeValue capture and uplift associated with infrastructure projects are often discussed but not well understood. This is because the issue sits at the crossroads of competing public and private interests, as well as institutional imperatives of project proponents.

From an economic perspective, it is a method of generating funds from economic rents – unearned private benefits from public investments – to deliver infrastructure projects. In the Australian context it is increasingly heralded as a potential new source of investment funds. However aspects of this approach have been used in both the US and the UK.

While there are over one hundred studies on value uplift around transport modes, impacts of other infrastructure types remain less well understood.

The Bureau of Transport, Infrastructure and Regional Economics has identified a range of factors assessing land value uplift challenging:

  • separating factors driving uplift to identify the infrastructure impact;
  • sampling errors in the estimation of land prices;
  • determining the catchment for beneficiaries / the project area of influence; and
  • isolating value uplift from network effects.

In essence, value uplift is where value flows from an infrastructure network are capitalised into land values. This is often observed regarding transport networks.

For the reasons outlined above, identifying value uplift is difficult in terms of identifying both who benefits and at what value. It is also why it has not been widely used to fund public infrastructure. However, there are two factors driving consideration of value capture funding:

  • economic rents accrue to landholders benefiting from economic infrastructure – in effect private, unearned returns from public investment in public assets – these are above and beyond use benefits and raises a critical equity issue; and
  • use revenues, particularly from public transport investments, are insufficient to fund infrastructure expenditures and are often complemented with significant subsidies from the public purse – value capture is seen as an alternative to increasing the general level of taxation revenue.

Overseas experience provides some guide to the types of value capture approaches, and each approach has its own pros and cons:

  • tax inventive funding – hypothecated value uplift based on an expected increase in property tax revenue. Commonly, a government issues a bond, effectively guaranteeing a return that matches the expected value uplift increment. The value at risk, however, remains with the government issuer.  This is one of the reasons most government treasuries oppose issuing these bonds – there is no transfer of financial risk associated with the value uplift increment.
  • betterment taxes – land owners thought to be direct beneficiaries of an infrastructure development – but not necessarily users themselves – pay a levy. The levey is typivally on the unimproved capital value of the land. A key challenge with this approach is achieving a correct attribution of the increase in land value from the provision of the infrastructure and related services.
  • transaction taxes – typically levied on property transfers. In this case, some of the property value increase attributed to the provision of publicly funded infrastructure will be collected by these taxes. However, this attribution is again difficult to to assess.
  • joint development – usually where a licence or concession is given to a private agency to develop surrounding land in exchange for delivering economic infrastructure and services. This is a significant model for railway development, and is currently in use for heavy rail in Asian countries.

While a range of estimation problems have been identified above, network architecture remains the most significant factor. Hierarchy, connections and density influence this. While the literature on network architecture largely focuses on transport infrastructure, specifically road and rail assets, further analysis is needed of other linear infrastructure (i.e. water, electricity and gas).

Two broad solutions emerge: either a more to a more general land tax; or further detailed investigation of each specific infrastructure project. The important point is to adopt an approach that minimises market distortions and promotes economic efficiency.

Categories
Cost Benefit Analysis Economics Lytton Advisory

Make the Casino Work for You

rouletteNothing is more hair raising than exposure to risk without a sense of the level of that exposure.  This is especially true in capital investment decisions.

Monte Carlo simulations perform risk analysis by building models of possible results by substituting a range of values—a probability distribution—for any factor that has inherent uncertainty and significant impact on the final result.

By using probability distributions, variables can have different probabilities of different outcomes occurring.  Probability distributions are a much more realistic way of describing uncertainty in variables of a risk analysis and improve the quality of sensitivity analysis.

During a Monte Carlo simulation, values are sampled at random from input probability distributions.  This is done hundreds or thousands of times, and results in a probability distribution of possible outcomes.  It provides a much more comprehensive view of what may happen.

Advantages over deterministic, or “single-point estimate” analysis include:

  • Probabilistic Results. Showing how likely each outcome is.
  • Clearer Graphical Results. Visual presentation of probabilities.
  • Improved Sensitivity Analysis. Sharper sensitivity analysis to show what counts.
  • Scenario Analysis: Model repeated variations in combinations of factors to show which scenarios need further investigation.
  • Correlation of Inputs. Represent how, in reality, when some factors goes up, others go up or down accordingly.

Done poorly or with low quality input data, the results can be potentially misleading – producing a level of certainty on the basis of some very uncertain assumptions.

Lytton Advisory holds an @Risk software licence which enable us to provide this type of probabilistic analysis to clients, helping them make better informed decisions. Examples of how we have applied this for clients include:

  • Estimating financial costs of schedule delay on a major metropolitan public transport project.
  • Assessing probability of breaching a cost contingency levels on a +$500 million infrastructure program.
  • Building probabilistic NPV profiles in cost benefit analyses given uncertainty about key economic inputs.

Contact us today to find out how we might be able to help you.

Categories
Infrastructure

What Price Data?

When we look at infrastructure services we should also consider the context in which they are provided.

Currently I am on assignment in PNG.  Telekom here in the past week has slashed mobile broadband top up prices by 50% to around A$25 per gigabyte (GB).  It sounds impressive and may have a meaningful impact.  However even that level it is still eyewateringly expensive compared to Australia.  But stop and think about it in the context of purchasing power.

Some data I looked at recently suggested GDP per person in PNG was probably A$2,500.  In Australia GDP per person is around $45,000, some eighteen times the level in PNG. Depending on the definition the actual figures can vary but consider that as a rough context for income.

If Australian’s faced the same share of GDP spent on broadband top ups as in PNG that would look iike a cost of $450 per GB.  How fast a rate of uptake would you expect if Australia faced that price?  Mind you it was not that long ago we were paying those prices for dial-up.

This also supports earlier analysis by the International Telecommunications Union:

“By early 2013, the price of an entry-level mobile-broadband plan represents between 1.2-2.2% of monthly GNI p.c. in developed countries and between 11.3- 24.7% in developing countries, depending on the type of service.”

See: http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/facts/ICTFactsFigures2013-e.pdf

Clearly further, lower prices are needed in PNG along with relative increases in GDP per person.  The digital divide remains huge and the context remains relevant whether you are looking at PNG or Australia.

Image source: comparebroadband.com.au

Categories
Infrastructure

Infrastructure and Human Development

I am currently in Port Moresby on an assignment.  It is a three hour flight from Brisbane but a world away in many other respects.  The UN releases reports on human development.  Some contrasts are quite stark.

PNG       Australia    Measure

0.411      0.933         Human Development Index

157th      2nd            Human Development Index rank

7.25        23.3           Population (million)

17.07       950.65      GDP (US$billion 2011)

2,381       42,278      GDP per capital (US$ 2011)

0.617       0.113        Gender inequality (lower is better)

62.42       82.5         Life expectancy at birth

When we look at infrastructure it makes you think vey hard about what is important.  It really is all about context.

Sources:
http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/AUS
http://hdr.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/PNG

Categories
Infrastructure

Accuracy and precision are different things, especially for infrastructure

The effort invested in ‘getting it right’ should be commensurate with the importance of the decision – Daniel Kahneman

Accuracy is the absence of error; precision is the level of detail. Often in infrastructure planning and analysis we see an unnecessary need for precision in the early stages with not much emphasis on accuracy.

Effective problem solving requires always being accurate but only being as precise as is helpful at any given stage of problem solving. This is about delivering analysis that is sufficient to proceed to the next stage in developing an infrastructure project. Many project approval gateway processes recognize this, but it is often poorly implemented.

Early in the problem solving process, accurate but imprecise methods, rather than very exact methods, will allow consideration of all reasonable approaches and minimize the tracking of needlessly detailed data. In this way, less apparent but potentially higher value options and scenarios can be considered and compared with the standard approaches.

Categories
Infrastructure

Better Infrastructure Planning

Better infrastructure planning avoids presuming a solution.

Often we get locked into assumptions about the nature of the problem, its causes and desirable solutions. Wise infrastructure planners step back – examine what caused the problem, what caused the causes, and what caused those causes. This reveals possibilities very different from what end users envisage, but meet the true need most effectively.

A proper needs analysis is critical. If overlooked, huge value is often lost – for society, for the economy and for business.

Categories
Transport

Valuing Toowoomba’s Second Range Crossing

What value can we put on the capital cost per vehicle using the $1.6 billion Toowoomba Second Range Crossing?

Let’s assume: in a 25 year appraisal period traffic volumes grow 3.5% p.a.; some 75% of some 23,000 vehicles per day divert to the crossing; and a 4% real discount rate. How does just under $12 a vehicle sound?

Bump traffic growth to 6% p.a., raise diversion to 85% diversion, and trim the discount rate to 3%, and you get just over $6.

Sets a bar, doesn’t it?

This project will only show a net economic benefit if benefits that are eventually identified are multiples of this.