In helping people and organisations figure out the odds and make smarter infrastructure decisions, sometimes the right course of action may actually seem counterintuitive.
An example of this is the Monty Hall Paradox.
Suppose you are participating in a game show where the prize – say a luxury car – is behind one of three closed doors. Can you improve your odds of winning the car by switching doors after the host shows you what is behind one of the other doors?
Of course you can.
I have attached a little PowerPoint that explains why and in what context. See:
It can be hard to recognise when additional, relevant information should prompt us to change course.